Global Market Snapshot April–May 2026: Navigating Structural Change and Hidden Risk

Global markets remain resilient despite increased geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Key concerns include energy security, inflation persistence, fiscal deficits, and market concentration.

Tensions in the Middle East, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty across global trade routes continue to affect market sentiment. At the same time, equity markets remain supported by U.S. technology and AI-related sectors.

Geopolitical Developments

The Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence global markets, particularly through higher oil prices and energy supply concerns.

Europe also faces continued geopolitical uncertainty linked to Russia and broader global political realignment.

Equity Markets

Global equities have continued to perform well, led mainly by large-cap U.S. technology and semiconductor companies.

At the same time, market concentration remains high, with performance increasingly dependent on a small group of companies.

Fixed Income and Real Assets

Bond yields remain elevated as inflation stays above central bank targets and fiscal deficits remain high.

Gold, commodities, and real assets continue to play an important role in portfolio diversification and risk management.

Portfolio Positioning

The Barbell Approach Remains the Preferred Strategy

We continue to favor a barbell approach that combines structural growth exposure with defensive resilience.

On one side, we maintain exposure to AI, technology, and innovation. On the other, we emphasize commodities, real assets, and resilient income-generating strategies.

This allows portfolios to remain invested in long-term growth themes while protecting against inflation persistence, geopolitical shocks, and broader regime shifts.

Resilience should not be mistaken for stability

Markets continue to demonstrate impressive resilience, but resilience should not be mistaken for stability. The current environment is defined by short-term market complacency against a backdrop of long-term structural change. At Orion Capital, we remain focused on navigating this transition with discipline, balancing participation in key growth themes with robust diversification and active risk management.

If you are interested in discussing how the current macroeconomic and market environment may affect your portfolio, or in learning more about our investment philosophy, risk management approach, and asset allocation framework, we invite you to contact us for an introductory conversation.

Any discussion is conducted for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell financial instruments. Investment decisions are made exclusively within the framework of a formal asset management or advisory agreement and based on an individual assessment of suitability and appropriateness.

Contact us to learn more about our approach.

This document has been prepared by an independent asset manager for information purposes only . It does not constitute an offer, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or any other form of personal recommendation within the meaning of the Swiss Financial Services Act (FinSA ) and related ordinances . The information and views expressed in this document are of a general nature and do not take into account the individual financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, or specific needs of any particular investor . Any investment strategy or positioning described herein is provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as a model portfolio or a binding investment proposal . Investment decisions should be made exclusively on the basis of the applicable asset management agreement, investment mandate, or advisory agreement concluded with the independent asset manager, and in accordance with the agreed investment strategy, risk profile, and regulatory constraints . Where appropriate, investors are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions . The views, assessments, and opinions expressed reflect the author’s judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change at any time without prior notice . They are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable ; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information . Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results . Any forward - looking statements, including statements regarding expected market developments, asset allocation preferences, or anticipated returns, are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions . Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied . Investments in financial instruments involve risks, including the potential loss of the invested capital . Market values may fluctuate due to changes in economic conditions, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, creditworthiness of issuers, liquidity conditions, political developments, or other factors . Certain investments may involve higher volatility, leverage, or illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors . References to specific securities, asset classes, regions, or sectors are made solely for explanatory purposes and do not constitute a recommendation or endorsement . The independent asset manager does not guarantee the performance of any investment strategy or outcome described in this document . This document is intended exclusively for the recipient and may not be reproduced, distributed, or forwarded to third parties, in whole or in part, without prior written consent. It is not intended for distribution in jurisdictions where such distribution would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations . To the extent permitted by applicable law, the independent asset manager, its partners, employees, and affiliated parties disclaim any liability for losses or damages arising from the use of, reliance on, or interpretation of this document.